Sunday, September 10, 2023

The Dollar Index Approaches 105 Amidst Surging US Bond Yields: A Sign of Trouble Ahead?

As US bond yields climb and dollar index nears 105: A sign of trouble ahead?

In September, the US Dollar Index once again approached the 105 level, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds briefly rose above 4.3%. Optimism around the US economic outlook and the Treasury Department's larger-than-expected bond issuance for H2 2023 have been the key factors driving both the US dollar and 10-year yields higher in recent weeks. Underlying support for the US dollar and bond yields looks strong, but momentum is running out of steam and a stabilization period is expected to ensue over the coming months.

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Cannabis, Indian and Japanese Strategies Soar Amidst a Volatile Market

The shortened trading week due to the Labor Day holiday saw light data and low trading volumes.

Despite some positive data, U.S. stocks trended lower for much of the week, amid signs that the economy was starting to cook once again. Weekly initial jobless claims fell and came in at 216,000 for the week ending September 2, one of the lowest readings since the pandemic and showed that businesses were still hiring at a fevered pace. The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly surged to 54.5 in August, marking the strongest growth in the services sector in over six months. August's reading reversed the dip seen in July and also came in higher than the forecasted number of around 52.5. This sent stocks lower due to fears the Fed would keep its pace of interest rate hikes going for the foreseeable future. However, on a bright note, the announcement of an IPO for British chip-maker ARM, with a valuation of $52 billion, kept tech stocks higher on the week.

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